GRC loss impacts PAP's renewal plans

The Straits Times: Published on May 14, 2011
GRC loss impacts PAP's renewal plans
Opposition may now find it easier, and PAP harder, to recruit talent
By Elgin Toh
Just about every piece of conventional wisdom articulated about Group Representation Constituencies (GRCS) has been overturned or at least called into question by the May 7 election results.
Of these, one or the most important has to do with how political parties in Singapore recruit new candidates for party renewal.

Three months before the election, I interviewed an opposition figure who told me the GRC system worked against opposition recruitment. He knew a prominent professor from a local university who
had, for years, been mulling over the possibility of joining the opposition.
"lf you can find me a single ward, I may consider running” the professor once told him. “But GRC? No way."

History was his guide- no opposition candidate had ever been elected in a GRC.
But with so few constituencies earmarked as single seats- 12 in this election - the opposition figure could not assure the professor he would be fielded in one.
To date, the professor has not taken the plunge.
That story stood in stark contrast to a revelation by Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong in 2006 about the psyche of prospective Peop1e’s Action Party (PAP) candidates.
He implied that it would have been harder to get good people to enter politics without the GRC system.
This was because high-flying individuals preferred the relative safety of a GRC where their election was all but assured as part of a slate that includes a big-name PAP minister. In contrast, the vagaries of a one-on-one contest in a single seat meant they risked embarrassing defeat.
In short, the prevailing view was that opposition new faces shunned GRCS, while PAP new faces preferred them.
And so, the more GRC seats there were on the electoral map, the harder it was for the opposition to recruit candidates, and the easier it was for the PAP.
Until May 7, 2011. What happened?

Well, for starters, a GRC- Aljunied- fell to the opposition for the first time since 1988, when the group-MP concept was created to entrench minority representation.
As a result, two Cabinet ministers, one potential Speaker and one potential minister did not make it into Parliament.
PAP’s loss of Aljunied to the Workers’ Party (WP) discredited the strongly held belief that a GRC was a safe haven for PAP newcomers and a killing field for opposition ones.
But Aljunied is not the entire story.

In 2006, the average PAP vote share was 67.4 per cent in GRCs and 62.9 percent in Single Member Constituencies (SMCs). There was a 4.5 percentage point gap.
GRCs still looked much harder to conquer than SMCs, from the opposition’s perspective.
But in 2011, this gap fell to l percentage point. The PAP polled 60.3 per cent in GRCs and 59.3 per cent in SMCs.
The disparity in vote share between the two categories of constituencies has become almost negligible.
Indeed, by one measure, the opposition actually performed better in GRCs.
In eight out of 15 GRCs, the opposition polled 40 per cent, putting it within sight of victory. The same ratio was six out of 12 for SMCs, or exactly half.
What does this mean for Singapore politics, going forward?
First, the opposition in general – but especially the WP, which netted Aljunied GRC - is likely to have an easier time convincing people to join its ranks.
For a promising opposition activist who might otherwise have held strong reservations about standing for elections, an offer to join the WP slate in Aljunied GRC or East Coast GRC (where WP polled a creditable 45 per cent) in 2016 may prove tempting enough.
Ironically, the old adage that PAP candidates "rode on the coat-tails" of ministers in GRCs may be turned on its head. Opposition newcomers could be accused of riding on Mr Low Thia Khiang’s or Ms Sylvia Lim’s coat-tails.
The WP may also emulate the PAP in parachuting a heavyweight in to beef up another GRC slate, Mr Low or Ms Lim for example, may even leave Aljunied to helm East Coast GRC at the next election.
The converse is also true. The PAP may find its recruitment efforts hampered by this new state of play.
Most new PAP candidates tell reporters that they have to say yes to politics before being told where they would be fielded. And even after they are posted to a particular branch and formally introduced to the press, things remain fluid until Nomination Day.
In the past, to the newcomer, there were only two "dangerous" seats: Hougang and Potong Pasir.
Now, even a place on a GRC slate is no confirmation of entry into Parliament.
Will it deter some from stepping forward in white-and-white? Based on SM Goh’s comments in 2006, yes.
More worrying from the PAP’s point of view is how this new uncertainty will affect its carefully laid out renewal plans.
Each election, about 20 to 25 new candidates are fielded, including a handful said to be of ministerial calibre. The loss of even two or three GRCs will set back the PAP’s renewal plans considerably, if the losing candidates include those tipped for high-flying positions in government.
The Prime Minister cannot assure candidates of wins, when even GRCs helmed by veteran and popular ministers like SM Goh managed just 56.6 per cent.
The loss of Aljunied GRC has created a new, more level playing field in politics for both the PAP and the opposition. The talent scouting race will not be as lop-sided as it used to be.
That may prove positive for Singapore politics overall. Citizens want leaders who show grit and perseverance. Academic credentials and a good track record in the civil service are not enough to make a good political leader.
Citizens demand of those who seek to lead that they also show a passion to serve. And that means having a sturdy heart and the resilience to say: I am here to serve long term. I am defeated this time, but I have what it takes to bounce back wiser and stronger.
elgintoh@sph.com.sg
http://www.straitstimes.com/PrimeNews/Story/STIStory_668393.html


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18May2011: GRCs no longer safe havens for newbies